The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.
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Spatial Extent: | Bounding Rectangle: N: 83.98 S: -55.92 E: 180.0 W: -180.0 |
Data Format(s): | Distribution: GeoTIFF |
Temporal Extent: | Platform(s): | MODELS | |
Data Center(s): | SEDAC | Instrument(s): | Computer |
Version: | 1.0 |
10.7927/H4Z899CG
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Title: Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools
Publication Date: 2012-10-02
Author(s): Seto, K., B. Guneralp, and L.R. Hutyra
Series: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume: 109
Issue: 40
Pages: 16083-16088
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1211658109
Online Resource: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109
Project Short Name | Campaigns | Project Dates |
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LULC | No campaigns listed. | No dates provided. |
Coverage Type | Zone Identifier | Geometry | Granule Representation |
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HORIZONTAL | CARTESIAN | CARTESIAN |
Geodetic Model:
Datum Name | Ellipsoid Name | Semi Major Axis | Flattening Ratio Denominator |
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World Geodetic System 1984 | WGS84 | 6378137 | 298.257224 |
0.048126 Not provided
0.048126 Not provided
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61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000
Palisades,
New York
10964
61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000
Palisades,
New York
10964
61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000
Palisades,
NY
10964
Format: GeoTIFF
Format Type: Native
Fees: 0