Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030
The Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030 presents spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land cover change from 2000 to 2030 at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution. For each grid cell that is non-urban in 2000, a Monte-Carlo model assigned a probability of becoming urban by the year 2030. The authors first extracted urban extent circa 2000 from the NASA MODIS Land Cover Type Product Version 5, which provides a conservative estimate of global urban land cover. The authors then used population densities from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to create the population density driver map. They estimated the amount of new urban land in each United Nations region by 2030 in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on present empirical distribution of regional urban population densities and probability density functions of projected regional population and GDP values for 2030. To facilitate integration with other data products, CIESIN reprojected the data from Goode's Homolosine to Geographic WGS84 projection.
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| Spatial Extent: | Bounding Rectangle: N: 83.98 S: -55.92 E: 180.0 W: -180.0 |
Data Format(s): | Distribution: GeoTIFF |
| Temporal Extent: | Platform(s): | MODELS | |
| Data Center(s): | SEDAC | Instrument(s): | Computer |
| Version: | 1.0 | ||
- Title: Global Grid of Probabilities of Urban Expansion to 2030
- Creator: Seto, K., B. Guneralp, and L.R. Hutyra
- Publisher: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)
- Release Date: 2016-03-04T00:00:00.000Z
- Linkage: https://doi.org/10.7927/H4Z899CG
- GENERAL DOCUMENTATION: https://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/set/lulc-global-grid-prob-urban-expansion-2030/docs, Documentation Page
Collection Information
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Purpose
To assess likely future areas of urban expansion up to the year 2030. -
DOI
10.7927/H4Z899CG
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Data Identification
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Processing Level
3
- Quality
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Collection Progress
Complete
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Use Constraints
Users are free to use, copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt the work for commercial and non-commercial purposes, without restriction, as long as clear attribution of the source is provided.
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Access Constraints
None
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Title: Global Forecasts of Urban Expansion to 2030 and Direct Impacts on Biodiversity and Carbon Pools
Publication Date: 2012-10-02
Author(s): Seto, K., B. Guneralp, and L.R. Hutyra
Series: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume: 109
Issue: 40
Pages: 16083-16088
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1211658109
Online Resource: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109
Data Dates
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Publication References
Related URLs
Other Descriptive Keywords
ISO Topic Categories
- IMAGERY/BASE MAPS/EARTH COVER
Acquisition Information
Projects
| Project Short Name | Campaigns | Project Dates |
|---|---|---|
| LULC | No campaigns listed. | No dates provided. |
Temporal Information
Spatial Information
Location Keywords
- GEOGRAPHIC REGION
- GLOBAL
Data Centers
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SEDAC
ARCHIVER, DISTRIBUTORSocioeconomic Data and Applications Center
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Data Contacts
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CIESIN METADATA ADMINISTRATION
Metadata AuthorCIESIN METADATA ADMINISTRATION
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61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000
Palisades, New York 10964
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SEDAC USER SERVICES
Technical ContactSEDAC USER SERVICES
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61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000
Palisades, New York 10964
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SEDAC USER SERVICES
Data Center ContactSEDAC USER SERVICES
SEDAC-
61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000
Palisades, NY 10964
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Archive And Distribution Information
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Format: GeoTIFF
Format Type: Native
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